May 2026 | Metalsbuy Market Pulse
KEY NUMBERS
168.4 Million Tonnes : India’s crude steel production in FY26
10.7% : Growth in crude steel output during FY26
164 Million Tonnes : Finished steel consumption in FY26
7% to 8% : Growth in finished steel consumption
29.1% : Growth in steel exports during March 2026
30.14 Million Tonnes : JSW Steel’s highest ever annual production
23.48 Million Tonnes : Tata Steel’s highest ever India production
9.25 Million Tonnes : Jindal Steel’s highest ever annual production
85% : Current coking coal import dependency
65% : Mission Coking Coal target dependency by FY30
⸻
MARKET ANALYSIS
There was a time when India’s steel story could be measured by capacity announcements.
A new blast furnace. A new rolling mill. Another expansion plan.
Today the numbers tell a different story.
The capacity has arrived.
India produced a record 168.4 million tonnes of crude steel in FY26, the highest output in the country’s history. Finished steel consumption reached 164 million tonnes. Exports accelerated sharply. The country’s largest producers all reported record production levels. The industry is no longer talking about potential. It is operating at scale.
The significance of the 168.4 million tonne figure extends beyond the headline itself. Steel production has now grown faster than many market participants expected at the start of the decade, supported by infrastructure spending, railway projects, urban construction and manufacturing investment. Government capital expenditure continues flowing into roads, ports, freight corridors and industrial corridors. Every one of those projects consumes steel.
The export numbers deserve equal attention.
Steel exports rose 29.1 percent in March 2026 alone. For years India was primarily viewed as a domestic consumption story. Today the country is increasingly becoming both a major consumer and an increasingly relevant exporter. That shift matters because export growth provides mills with another outlet when domestic demand slows seasonally.
The implications for ferro alloys are difficult to miss.
Every tonne of steel produced requires alloying inputs. Ferrochrome strengthens stainless steel. Silico manganese and ferro manganese remain fundamental ingredients across steelmaking. When crude steel production climbs to record levels, ferro alloy demand rises with it. India’s alloy producers are benefiting from the same industrial expansion that is lifting steel output.
There is another change taking place beneath the surface.
India is gradually becoming less dependent on imported finished steel while strengthening its position in export markets. The trade balance is not transforming overnight, but the direction is becoming clearer. More domestic production. More exports. Greater industrial self reliance.
The steel story is maturing.
And maturity brings scale.
⸻
INDUSTRY IMPACT
Record steel production creates confidence across the supply chain.
Mining companies invest with greater certainty. Ferro alloy producers expand capacity. Logistics providers add infrastructure. Equipment manufacturers see stronger order books. The effects spread far beyond steel mills themselves.
Demand visibility has become particularly important for ferro alloy suppliers.
The rapid expansion of steelmaking capacity across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra means alloy producers can plan investments against a growing domestic customer base. That changes risk calculations. Export markets remain important, but domestic demand is increasingly large enough to support meaningful expansion on its own.
The export surge also strengthens India’s position internationally.
A larger export presence means Indian mills are becoming more influential participants in regional steel markets. Buyers across Asia, the Middle East and Europe are paying closer attention to Indian supply than they did five years ago.
That influence tends to compound over time.
⸻
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Mission Coking Coal will become one of the most important variables over the next four years.
India still imports approximately 85 percent of its coking coal requirements. Reducing that figure to 65 percent would improve raw material security and reduce exposure to international supply disruptions.
Watch infrastructure spending closely.
Railways, highways and industrial projects remain the primary demand engine for domestic steel consumption. Continued investment would support production growth. Any slowdown would be felt quickly across the sector.
Export momentum also deserves attention.
March was exceptionally strong. The question is whether that performance becomes a trend or proves temporary.
The answer will shape market sentiment through the rest of FY27.
⸻
MARKET OUTLOOK
India’s steel industry has entered a different phase of development.
The conversation is no longer about catching up.
It is about consolidating leadership.
Record production, rising exports and expanding capacity suggest an industry operating with increasing confidence. Challenges remain. Raw material dependency remains significant. Global competition remains intense. Yet the underlying direction is difficult to ignore.
India is producing more steel than ever before.
The country’s largest producers are reporting their strongest years.
And the ferro alloy market is growing alongside them.
For an industry built on scale, FY26 may ultimately be remembered as the year India stopped talking about potential and started delivering it.
Written by Metalsbuy Editorial Desk
May 2026