India’s external trade performance has begun the new year on a steady footing, with exports showing strong positive momentum in early January, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. The indication comes at a time when global trade remains uneven amid slowing growth in developed economies and continued geopolitical uncertainty.
While official trade numbers for January will be released in mid-February, early indicators suggest that outbound shipments are tracking comfortably above year-ago levels, supported by resilience in manufacturing and services exports.
Export Trend Snapshot
India’s export trajectory in recent months provides a supportive backdrop to the optimistic January outlook:
- Cumulative exports (April–December FY26) stood at approximately USD 634 billion, reflecting a growth of over 4 percent year on year, driven by steady merchandise flows and robust services exports.
- December merchandise exports were estimated at around USD 38.5 billion, marking a marginal but positive annual increase despite volatility in global commodity prices.
- Services exports continued to act as a stabiliser, offsetting fluctuations in goods trade.
The early January trend suggests that Indian exporters are navigating global headwinds with improved market diversification and competitive pricing.
Steel Exports Strengthen Merchandise Performance
The steel sector has emerged as a notable contributor to India’s recent export momentum, reinforcing the broader merchandise trade outlook.
- Finished steel exports rose by around 30–35 percent year on year during April–December FY26, reaching close to 4.8 million tonnes, supported by demand from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Europe.
- Crude steel production during the same period remained strong at nearly 124 million tonnes, while finished steel output crossed 117 million tonnes, ensuring adequate availability for both domestic consumption and overseas markets.
- Policy measures aimed at curbing low-priced imports have helped Indian mills maintain export competitiveness without distorting domestic supply.
Improved realizations and higher capacity utilization have strengthened balance sheets of Indian steel producers, allowing exports to play a counter-cyclical role during periods of softer domestic demand.
State-Led Export Engines
India’s export performance continues to be shaped by strong contributions from key industrial states:
- Maharashtra has emerged as the most export-ready state, supported by manufacturing depth, logistics infrastructure, and port connectivity.
- Gujarat and Tamil Nadu remain critical hubs for engineering goods, metals, and industrial exports.
- Eastern states such as Odisha and Jharkhand, with their concentration of steel and mineral assets, are increasingly relevant in India’s metals export value chain.
These regional strengths underline the growing alignment between state-level industrial policy and national export objectives.
Metalsbuy Market Insight
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Sustained export momentum improves earnings visibility for steelmakers, particularly those with diversified export portfolios.
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A stable trade outlook supports raw material demand across iron ore, coking coal, and ferro alloys, strengthening the upstream metals ecosystem.
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Continued export resilience may partially cushion the impact of global price volatility on Indian commodity markets in the near term.
With official January trade data awaited, early signals suggest that India’s export engine remains on track, with the steel sector providing a crucial pillar of support to overall merchandise trade.