China's stainless steel exports remain lower than last year, but the latest numbers suggest that the decline has become less severe compared with the start of 2026. From January to July, China exported 244.98 million tonnes? No—that would be incorrect. The actual figure was 2.4498 million tonnes, down 16% year-on-year. The decline is still substantial, but it is an improvement from the first few months of the year, when exports were falling at a much sharper pace.
The numbers are worth looking at more closely because China's stainless steel trade has had a fairly uneven year so far. Exports were hit hard in the opening months, recovered somewhat during the second quarter, and then weakened again in July.
The first half was much weaker
In the January-June period, China's stainless steel exports stood at 2.0558 million tonnes, down 17.77% year-on-year. By comparison, the decline for January-July narrowed to 16%.
That improvement does not mean exports suddenly turned strong. It simply means the pace of decline eased as more volume moved out during the second quarter. June, in particular, was better, with exports reaching 443,100 tonnes, up 13.63% year-on-year.
The earlier months had been much tougher. In the January-April period, China's stainless steel exports were down 28.47% year-on-year, falling to around 1.197 million tonnes. That gives some context to the latest seven-month figure. The market has recovered from the very weak start, but it has not returned to the export levels seen in 2025.
July brought another slowdown
The recovery also lost some momentum in July. China exported 391,400 tonnes of stainless steel in July, down around 13% from June and 6% lower than July last year. Net exports for the month stood at 275,000 tonnes, down nearly 20% year-on-year.
July is traditionally not the easiest month for international stainless steel trade because of slower buying activity in some overseas markets. Data published by Chinese market sources also pointed towards weaker shipments to several destinations during the month, with seasonal slowdown affecting demand. So while the cumulative January-July decline improved compared with the first quarter, July itself was not particularly strong.
Imports are telling a slightly different story
China's stainless steel imports have also changed. During January-July, the country imported 871,200 tonnes, down 3.25% year-on-year. July imports alone were 116,400 tonnes, slightly lower than June but almost 59.5% higher than July 2025.
Indonesia remains an important part of this picture. China's imports of Indonesian stainless steel during the January-July period were around 725,300 tonnes, broadly flat compared with the same period last year. However, the product mix has shifted, with cold-rolled imports showing growth while some other categories declined.
This matters because China is both a major producer and exporter of stainless steel, while also importing sizeable volumes from Indonesia. The trade flow between the two countries has become an important part of the Asian stainless steel market.
The bigger number is net exports
Exports alone do not tell the full story. China's cumulative net stainless steel exports during January-July stood at 1.5786 million tonnes, down 21.69% year-on-year. That decline was steeper than the fall in gross exports because imports did not fall at the same rate.
For overseas markets, net exports are an important number to watch. Lower net exports mean comparatively less Chinese stainless steel is reaching the international market after accounting for imports.
That does not automatically translate into tighter global supply. Other major producing countries, particularly Indonesia, continue to play a significant role. But China's reduced export availability is still relevant because of the country's size in global stainless steel trade.
Trade restrictions are becoming harder to ignore
The 16% fall also comes against a backdrop of increasing trade restrictions. Several markets have been tightening scrutiny around stainless steel imports. Japan, for example, moved ahead with provisional anti-dumping duties on certain cold-rolled stainless steel imports from China and Taiwan earlier this year. Other markets have also been reviewing or maintaining trade protection measures for stainless products.
This is one of the reasons China's export numbers need to be viewed beyond just global demand. Even if overseas consumption improves, access to certain markets is becoming more complicated for Chinese suppliers.
The first seven months of 2026 show a mixed picture. China's stainless steel exports are still well below last year's levels, but the decline has narrowed considerably from the nearly 30% fall seen earlier in the year.
The July numbers, however, are a reminder that the recovery is not consistent yet. 2.45 million tonnes of exports and a 16% year-on-year decline is still a sizeable change for one of the world's biggest stainless steel suppliers. The next few months will show whether the second-quarter improvement was the start of a broader recovery or simply a temporary improvement in an otherwise weaker export year.